In the realm of the 2024 Republican presidential election, the focus remains on Donald Trump, the leading candidate whose future plans are still uncertain. There’s particular interest in his choice of running mate, given that Nikki Haley, ex-governor of South Carolina, isn’t gaining as much traction in the nomination race.
Betting circles have started suggesting potential contenders for the VP spot. Betfair, for instance, favors Representative Elise Stefanik of New York, assigning her a 9 to 2 odds, or an 18.2% probability of being chosen. Close behind is Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota, with 6/1 odds translating to a 14.3% possibility. Other speculated names include a range of politicians and non-politicians such as Vivek Ramaswamy, Ben Carson, Haley, Senator Tim Scott, former Representative Lee Zeldin, Kari Lake, and Governor Ron DeSantis.
The roster of potential surprise selections is equally varied. It includes Tucker Carlson, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Mike Pompeo, Ivanka Trump, Kanye West, Michael Flynn, Dr. Mehmet Oz, Lara Trump, and surprisingly, Andrew Cuomo, thus adding more unpredictability to the guessing game.
Political analysts believe that Trump may value loyalty over experience or ability. Christopher Devine from the University of Dayton posits that while voters appreciate a strong VP selection, they tend to disapprove of choices that appear to miss the mark.
According to CNN, Trump continues to lead the Republican field.
OddsChecker continues the discussion on betting odds, albeit without naming a clear favorite for Trump’s vice president.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball delves into the key aspects of a good VP choice, emphasizing party alignment, electability, and a trend towards women and minority candidates, but notes that those who lose in the primary race seldom get selected.
Statista brings in statistical data, suggesting Noem could be the one to watch, with betting odds giving her a 25% chance of being Trump’s choice.
The Hill provides its own analysis, listing demographics, geographic balance, and image synergy as crucial elements in the VP selection process.
Finally, the Miami Herald refers to a hint from Trump that his VP choice will be “pretty standard,” focusing on experience, ideology, geography, and demographics, with loyalty also being a significant factor.
As the wheels of the 2024 election begin to turn, the debate over Trump’s potential VP pick adds another layer of complexity to an already dynamic political landscape.