Bill Maher, host of HBO’s “Real Time with Bill Maher,” has made a bold prediction about the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, expressing confidence that former President Donald Trump will lose. This assertion comes amid growing anxiety among Americans about the upcoming election and recent polls showing a tight race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris.
During a recent episode of his show, Maher surprised his guest panelists, including Israeli historian Yuval Noah Harari, writer Fran Lebowitz, and political consultant Ian Bremmer, with his unwavering certainty about the election results.
“No, not at all,” Maher replied when asked if he was worried about the election. “Yeah, no, no, no, he’s definitely going to lose. You just feel it.”
Maher’s confidence stands in stark contrast to the concerns expressed by many Americans. According to a Yahoo News/YouGov poll conducted from September 11-13, 2024, 67% of Americans are feeling anxious about the upcoming election, with 31% feeling very anxious and 36% feeling somewhat anxious.
The sources of this anxiety are varied, with 64% of respondents concerned about the election’s impact on the economy and 60% worried about potential political violence. Additionally, 48% express concerns that the election results won’t be accepted, while 39% fear the election could be stolen.
Despite Maher’s certainty, recent polling data suggests a much closer race. A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted from September 3-6, 2024, found Trump leading Harris by a slim margin of 48% to 47% among likely voters nationally. The poll also revealed that the race remains tight in key battleground states, with both candidates having a chance to secure victory.
In Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, Trump has shown signs of strength. The New York Times/Siena College polls indicate that Trump is leading Harris by 50% to 45% in Arizona, with a 4-point lead in Georgia and a 3-point lead in North Carolina.
However, Harris holds a slight edge in other crucial swing states. The same polling organization found Harris leading Trump by 4 percentage points in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan among likely voters.
The economy remains the top issue for voters, with 81% of registered voters saying it will be very important to their vote, according to a Pew Research Center survey. Other key issues include healthcare, Supreme Court appointments, and abortion for Harris supporters, while Trump supporters prioritize immigration and violent crime alongside the economy.
The partisan divide on election integrity has also widened. A Gallup poll reveals a record-high 56-percentage-point gap between Democrats and Republicans in their confidence that votes will be accurately cast and counted. While 84% of Democrats express faith in the accuracy of the vote, only 28% of Republicans share this confidence.
Maher, who has previously labeled himself a “Trump alarmist,” believes his past skepticism gives him credibility in making this prediction. “I’ve already put my marker down on that,” Maher stated, adding that even if the polls show a close race up until election day, he remains convinced of the outcome.
However, not everyone shares Maher’s certainty. GOP pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson disputes his confidence, noting that Trump remains competitive in battleground states despite voters being familiar with his character and policies.
As the election approaches, both campaigns are focusing their efforts on key swing states, recognizing the potential for another close and potentially controversial outcome. With only weeks remaining in what is shaping up to be the shortest presidential election cycle in modern American history, both Harris and Trump face limited opportunities to shift the electorate in their favor.
The 2024 presidential election continues to be a source of intense interest and concern for many Americans, with the outcome likely to have significant implications for the nation’s future direction on key issues such as the economy, healthcare, and foreign policy.