As the search for Nancy Guthrie enters its eighth week, a veteran Pima County law enforcement official has shared a chilling theory about what may have happened to the missing 84-year-old mother of “Today” co-host Savannah Guthrie—and it paints a grim picture of a kidnapping plot gone fatally wrong.
Rick Kastigar, a former undersheriff who spent more than 40 years with the Pima County Sheriff’s Department and once served as Sheriff Chris Nanos’ direct supervisor, told NewsNation’s Brian Entin that he believes multiple people abducted Nancy Guthrie from her Tucson, Arizona, home in the early hours of February 1 and took her to Mexico in a desperate attempt to keep her alive long enough to extract ransom money from her family.
But Kastigar thinks that plan failed—and that Nancy Guthrie likely died in the process.
“What would prevent an individual who had planned this out—to the level that I think he did—from going into Mexico and harboring her someplace in Mexico where, theoretically, they could deal with her medical issues,” Kastigar said during an appearance on Brian Entin Investigates.
The theory hinges on a critical detail about Nancy Guthrie’s health. She required daily medication for high blood pressure and heart issues, had limited mobility, and depended on a pacemaker connected to a remote monitoring system. According to authorities, her pacemaker stopped syncing with her Apple devices at 2:28 a.m. on February 1—likely the moment she was taken from her home.
Kastigar believes the kidnappers knew they needed to keep Nancy alive to maintain leverage over the Guthrie family. Taking her to Mexico, where they could potentially obtain necessary medications without drawing attention, would have made sense from a criminal standpoint. But something went wrong.
The former undersheriff pointed to statements released by Savannah Guthrie and her family as evidence supporting his theory. In their public pleas for information, the family has asked for Nancy to be brought home but notably have not specified they want her returned alive—a subtle but telling omission that Kastigar says speaks volumes about what investigators may have privately communicated to the family. “My theory is that she’s passed,” he stated.
Police have released doorbell camera footage showing a masked suspect and shared descriptions of the potential abductor with the public. Investigators also made an unusual request to Nancy Guthrie’s neighbors in recent days, asking for any security footage from around January 11—nearly three weeks before her disappearance.
NBC News correspondent Liz Kreutz shared details about the investigation during a segment on the “Today” show on Monday. Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos explained that Google initially told investigators that a security image of a masked man at Guthrie’s front door was believed to be from January 11, though the company later backed off that assertion. Authorities have not publicly disclosed what connection that earlier date may have to Nancy’s abduction.
Savannah Guthrie and her family addressed the January 11 date directly when they released a statement Saturday asking Tucson residents to check their security systems for any relevant footage. The family urged anyone with potential evidence to come forward, no matter how insignificant it might seem.
The investigation has expanded significantly since Nancy Guthrie was first reported missing on February 1. What began as a local missing persons case has drawn national attention due to Savannah Guthrie’s prominence as a television journalist, but it has also revealed what appears to be a complex and carefully planned abduction involving multiple perpetrators.
Kastigar’s experience in law enforcement lends weight to his assessment. As a former supervisor of the current Pima County Sheriff, he has deep knowledge of criminal operations in the region and the patterns typically associated with kidnapping-for-ransom schemes along the Arizona-Mexico border. However, he also publicly criticized Nanos’ handling of the investigation, alleging the sheriff has been more focused on media engagement than coordinating with federal authorities.
The theory that Nancy was taken to Mexico addresses a question that has puzzled investigators: why no ransom demand has produced results. While multiple media outlets have reported receiving ransom notes demanding cryptocurrency payments, no proof of life has emerged. If Nancy died before the kidnappers could complete negotiations with her family, they would have lost their only bargaining chip—and any incentive to make further contact.
For now, investigators continue searching for answers. The Pima County Sheriff’s Department has not confirmed or disputed Kastigar’s theory, and Mexican officials have said they currently have no evidence that Guthrie was brought across the border. The department continues to pursue leads and analyze evidence collected from the neighborhood where Nancy Guthrie lived.
The case has drawn comparisons to other high-profile kidnappings, but Nancy’s age and medical needs make it particularly tragic. Her vulnerability would have made her an easier target but also created significant complications for anyone attempting to keep her alive in hiding.
As the investigation continues, the Guthrie family maintains hope for closure. Their most recent public statement emphasized the importance of community involvement in solving the case, urging residents to review any available footage or information that might help authorities piece together what happened to Nancy Guthrie. The family is offering a $1 million reward for information leading to her recovery.