CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said Thursday that record-breaking Democratic primary turnout is a sign that President Donald Trump is “deeply underwater” heading into the November midterms — and that the numbers should have the White House “running scared.”
Appearing on CNN’s “The Source” with anchor Kaitlan Collins on Thursday, Enten said the Democratic primary turnout figures he has been tracking are what he called “absolutely bonkers huge.” According to his analysis, over 25 million Democrats have cast ballots in primaries during this election cycle, surpassing the 23 million total from all of 2018’s primaries, a year widely regarded as showing exceptional Democratic energy. Democrats gained substantial House seats that year. This November, voters will decide all 435 U.S. House seats, 35 U.S. Senate seats, and 36 gubernatorial races. Republicans currently hold a narrow 219-212 edge in the House and a 53-47 majority in the Senate. Political forecasters broadly expect the GOP to face serious headwinds in both chambers. Collins noted that Trump himself has been known to cite Enten’s data, and she asked the analyst what he would be thinking if he were sitting inside the Trump White House right now. Enten said the elevated Democratic turnout reflects a deeply unpopular president, and noted that since 2006, whichever party had stronger primary participation went on to capture the House—a pattern that would spell trouble for Republicans if it continues. He cautioned that Democrats face vulnerabilities too, citing Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed’s minus-13 percent net favorability compared to Iowa candidate Josh Turek’s plus-18 percent.
Southern States Shift Toward Democrats
Also on Thursday, Enten highlighted what he described as a potentially historic opportunity for Democrats across three Southern states. Polling shows Sen. Jon Ossoff seeking re-election in Georgia, former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper running for Senate in that state, and Texas Senate candidate James Talarico all leading their Republican opponents. North Carolina has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, and Texas has not done so since 1988, making the current polling environment particularly striking.
Gas Prices and the Iran War Drive Trump’s Numbers Down
Beyond turnout, a separate wave of polling data analyzed by Enten this week paints a grim picture of Trump’s standing on core kitchen-table issues. Gas prices, which stood at $4.0776 per gallon on Friday according to AAA — up from roughly $3 a gallon before the administration’s Iran conflict began — have produced what Enten described as record disapproval for a president on that specific issue.
Trump’s disapproval on gas prices sits at 79 percent, worse than former President Joe Biden’s peak of 72 percent, former President Barack Obama’s high of 68 percent, and former President George W. Bush’s mark of 75 percent. Enten said the figures show that “no president has been hated more when it comes to gas prices” — and notably, 66 percent of GOP working-class voters, described as the president’s loyal base, also disapprove of rising prices under his watch.
The Iran conflict has created additional political damage. Among voters who describe themselves as extremely motivated to cast a ballot, Trump’s approval on his handling of Iran dropped from 53 percent in July 2024 to 29 percent in July 2026 — a 24-point collapse. Just 27 percent of all voters believe the U.S. will reach a favorable deal with Iran, and even among Republicans, only 41 percent expect a successful outcome. White House spokesperson Kush Desai maintained that oil prices would fall once the administration reaches a resolution with Iran, but the political damage appears to be accumulating in the meantime.
The fallout has reshuffled one of the GOP’s traditional strengths. In January 2025, a Reuters/Ipsos survey showed Republicans leading Democrats by 18 points on managing wars, conflicts, and terrorism. That advantage has now reversed, with Democrats up by two points—a 20-point swing in less than two years.
MAGA’s Core Voters Are Walking Away
The erosion extends to the very voters who powered Trump’s rise. Enten reported on August 7 that Americans without a college degree — a bloc central to Trump’s two presidential victories — have dramatically soured on the MAGA movement. The movement’s net approval among non-college adults stood at plus six percentage points last October; it has since fallen to minus 22 points, a 28-point shift.
Trump personally won non-college voters over Kamala Harris by 13 points in the 2024 election, but his average net approval among that group has now cratered to minus 19 points — a 32-point reversal. And while Republicans led Democrats among non-college voters by 13 points following the 2024 election, Democrats now hold a one-point edge in an average of polls.
GOP strategist David Winston acknowledged the threat, saying that if Democrats can sustain economic leads and win double-digit margins among independents, a blue wave is possible. With the midterms approaching, the numbers offer little comfort to a White House already bracing for a difficult autumn.