President Donald Trump keeps telling Americans that oil prices are about to collapse, and the market keeps answering him in the other direction.
Crude spiked Thursday, Oct. 22, 2026, after unnamed U.S. officials told The New York Times that American and Israeli commanders have drawn up specific plans for renewed strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, energy infrastructure and missile and drone arsenal once the Nov. 3 midterm elections are over. Brent crude futures hit $113.40 a barrel, the highest level since May 5, and the international benchmark was last up 4 percent at $113.25. U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 3 percent to $100.06.
Asked by a reporter late Wednesday, Oct. 21, whether his administration was negotiating with Tehran, Trump said it was not, and he predicted action on Iran without spelling out what or when. “Most people seem to think it’s after the election,” Trump said. He had vowed earlier in October not to hit Iran before the vote.
The war pitting the U.S. and Israel against Iran has run nearly eight months, and the president’s message to voters about what it costs them has not wavered. “They’ll never have a nuclear weapon, and oil prices will drop like a rock,” he told reporters in Montana on Oct. 14.
In Oval Office remarks reported Tuesday, Oct. 20, alongside Vice President JD Vance, he said the Iran war would end very soon. “Oil is going to drop like a rock and that’s the only thing holding it back,” Trump said, framing expensive fuel as a modest price for keeping Iran from a nuclear weapon. He set no timetable for the war’s end and did not lay out the global supply conditions behind his forecast. He also said he had telephoned several European leaders to ask for help against Iran and had been turned down.
The Bomb With the Nickname
Trump has floated dropping the 22,000-pound GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb — the weapon nicknamed the “Mother of All Bombs” — on Pickaxe Mountain, an Iranian nuclear site buried deep inside granite. Officials privately claim the president is smitten with the munition partly because of that nickname.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth flew to Israel to discuss the strikes with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Daily Mail reported, and the White House declined to discuss military planning. Three aircraft carriers and thousands of Marines will not be in place until early November. Some U.S. planners believe a three-day pounding could tip Iran’s economy over the edge and force Tehran to cave on its nuclear program. Mahdi Mohammadi, an Iranian adviser, warned that his country’s response to new attacks would be “more fierce, creative and different.”
Aramco Empties Its Dhahran Headquarters
The State Department on Wednesday, Oct. 21, ordered nonemergency government employees and their families out of Saudi Arabia. Spokesman Tommy Pigott wrote on X that the order covers Saudi Arabia alone, not the wider Gulf region, and pointed to escalating attacks by Iran-allied Houthis on civilian targets in the kingdom. Saudi state media reported that at least two people were killed and eight injured that day in an attack on King Fahd International Airport in Dammam.
Saudi Aramco, whose facilities have repeatedly come under Houthi attack, told staff to evacuate its Dhahran headquarters and work remotely, people familiar with the matter said. Traders have also been watching the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and a main artery for oil and gas headed to Asian markets.
Why $100 Oil Stings Less Now
The economic fallout may prove milder than in earlier energy shocks, according to David Wagner, head of equity and portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors, who noted that crude remains well below its inflation-adjusted historical highs. Pointing to U.S. government data, Wagner said gasoline swallowed roughly 5 percent of the average American’s disposable income a decade ago and about half that today, leaving households better placed to absorb the increase.
Wall Street was less relaxed. The Nasdaq tumbled 2 percent on concerns about artificial intelligence spending and the jump in oil prices.
Twelve days remain before the Nov. 3 vote, and Republicans face the prospect of losing both the House and the Senate as soaring gas prices drive up the cost of living.