CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten delivered a sobering assessment of President Donald Trump’s political standing following the U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, warning that the controversial action could backfire despite initial polling shifts.
The military operation in Venezuela was deeply unpopular even among Republicans before the raid, according to Enten’s analysis of polling data. A Reuters/IPSOS survey found that only 39 percent of Republican respondents favored such action, while 47 percent opposed military intervention and 29 percent remained unsure.
“I’d be really surprised that this turns out to be a positive for Donald Trump, or at least support for this operation,” Enten said.
Delta Force commandos captured the 63-year-old Maduro and his wife during the operation. The raid represented a dramatic escalation of U.S. involvement in Venezuela’s political crisis and marked one of the most direct military interventions in Latin America in recent decades.
Despite the initial skepticism, American support for the operation jumped significantly after its completion. Enten revealed that approval for ousting Maduro rose from 21 percent before the operation to 37 percent afterward, while opposition dropped to 38 percent.
However, the data analyst cautioned that public interest in the Venezuela operation has declined sharply. Google searches for Venezuela and the military action were down 70 percent from their peak levels. Even at the height of public attention, search traffic related to Maduro remained 74 percent lower than searches for Osama bin Laden in May 2011, when U.S. forces killed the terrorist leader in Pakistan.
The comparison to the bin Laden operation proved instructive for Enten’s analysis. While that 2011 raid initially boosted President Barack Obama’s approval ratings, the effect proved temporary and did not translate into sustained political gains. Enten suggested Trump faces similar dynamics, but with potentially greater downside risk given the operation’s initial unpopularity.
Trump’s overall approval rating stands at 36 percent according to Gallup polling, with a disapproval rating of 60 percent. This produces a net approval rating of minus 24 points, representing one of the weakest positions for any modern president at this stage of their tenure.
On December 1, Enten noted that Trump’s approval rating represented the worst performance for a president since Richard Nixon. Nixon registered a net approval of minus 36 points during the Watergate scandal that ultimately led to his resignation.
The Venezuela operation has generated controversy beyond polling numbers. Trump declared that the United States would be running Venezuela during any transitional period, raising questions about American intentions in the oil-rich nation.
The administration appointed Delcy Rodríguez as Venezuela’s temporary leader, though the exact nature of her authority and relationship with U.S. officials remains unclear. Marco Rubio has reportedly engaged in conversations with Rodríguez about establishing a cooperation framework.
Venezuelan opposition figure María Corina Machado has been denied a leadership role despite her prominence in the country’s pro-democracy movement. Stephen Miller, who advocated for Maduro’s ouster, has been mentioned as potentially playing an elevated role in Venezuela’s new governmental structure.
Vladimir Padrino López condemned the operation as a “cowardly kidnapping.” Other Venezuelan officials characterized the raid as an illegal kidnapping rather than a legitimate military operation.
The polling data suggests Americans remain deeply divided on military interventions abroad, with support often fluctuating based on perceived success or failure rather than underlying policy principles. Historical patterns indicate that public backing for military operations tends to peak immediately after action is taken, particularly when the mission appears successful, but frequently erodes as complications emerge or media attention shifts to other issues.
For Trump, the Venezuela operation represents a significant gamble with his political standing. While the capture of Maduro delivered a short-term tactical victory, Enten’s analysis suggests the president has more to lose than gain from the intervention. The combination of waning public interest, persistent opposition to the operation’s premise, and Trump’s already weak approval ratings creates a challenging political environment for the administration as it attempts to manage the aftermath of the raid and define America’s ongoing role in Venezuela’s future.
Sources:
https://www.thedailybeast.com/cnn-data-guru-predicts-trouble-ahead-for-trump-after-invasion/
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/cnn-data-guru-predicts-trouble-163932189.html
https://www.thedailybeast.com/cnn-data-guru-harry-enten-reveals-polling-twist-on-trumps-controversial-move/
https://www.irishstar.com/news/politics/donald-trumps-embarrassing-poll-number-36502640.amp
https://local.newsbreak.com/thedailybeast-513346/4426327974319-cnn-data-guru-predicts-trouble-ahead-for-trump-after-invasion
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/cnn-host-ruthlessly-destroys-donald-trump-with-disaster-opinion-poll/ar-AA1RyB37