CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten delivered stark warnings about President Donald Trump’s political standing this week, revealing that recent polling shows the 79-year-old commander-in-chief underwater with voters on nearly every front as his month-old Iran military operation drags on.
Appearing on CNN News Central, the 38-year-old polling guru walked through a cascade of troubling numbers for the White House, showing that Trump has lost support for the Iran war even among polls that initially showed public backing for the conflict.
“Trump has lost his one good poll when it comes to the Iran war,” Enten explained, pointing to Fox News data that once showed a 50-50 split but has since turned negative.
The U.S. launched coordinated strikes with Israel on Iran on Feb. 28 in what the administration dubbed Operation Epic Fury. According to recent polling data, the net approval rating for U.S. military action in Iran now stands at negative 16 points, with just 42 percent of Americans approving and 58 percent disapproving.
Trump’s personal handling of the Iran situation polls even worse. His net approval rating on Iran stands at negative 28 points overall, but among independent voters—the crucial swing demographic—the numbers are catastrophic at negative 58 points.
Enten’s animated delivery underscored the severity: Trump is 58 points underwater among independents on Iran, numbers that have dominated the political conversation over the past month.
The conflict has exacted a heavy toll. According to the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), more than 1,400 civilians have been killed in Iran during the first three weeks of war, including at least 214 children. In Lebanon, more than 1,100 have been killed, including at least 121 children. More than 300 U.S. service members have been wounded, and the Pentagon has deployed thousands of troops to the Middle East, including 2,000-3,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division.
A Quinnipiac University poll shows only 35 percent of Americans believe the war will make the world safer. Meanwhile, a Yahoo/YouGov poll conducted from March 12 to 16 found that when asked which party would better address the crisis, 40 percent favored Democrats, 37 percent chose Republicans, and 23 percent were unsure.
The war’s impact on global opinion has been equally brutal. Enten highlighted that Trump’s net approval rating in Canada has plummeted to negative 27, with even steeper declines in Japan at negative 73 and in the U.K. at negative 34.
Yet perhaps the most politically perilous finding for Trump involves an issue closer to home. The same Yahoo/YouGov poll revealed that 67 percent of Americans disapproved of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, while only 26 percent approved—putting him 41 points underwater on the issue that propelled him to victory in 2024.
Seventy-one percent of respondents described the economy as “fair” or “poor” as oil prices surge amid the conflict’s disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Enten didn’t mince words about the political implications, declaring that an incumbent president cannot win when the top issue is cost of living and his net approval rating on it is 41 points underwater.
The data analyst called the situation “a political nightmare” for Republicans heading into the midterm elections.
There is one bright spot for Trump in the polling—but it reveals a dangerous disconnect. Among the MAGA GOP base, 90 percent approve of U.S. military action in Iran, with just 9 percent disapproving.
Enten observed that the war remains popular among the GOP base despite criticism from figures like Tucker Carlson, the former Fox News host turned independent podcaster who has vocally opposed the military operation.
But that overwhelming support from the Republican base stands in stark contrast to the broader electorate’s rejection of the conflict, suggesting Trump may be politically trapped between keeping his core supporters satisfied and winning over the independents necessary for electoral success.
The White House has pushed back against the negative narrative. “President Trump has always been clear about temporary disruptions as a result of Operation Epic Fury,” White House spokesperson Kush Desai told The Daily Beast, adding that after the operation’s objectives are realized, “America is set to achieve new highs.”
But Enten’s assessment was unsparing. The Iran war is simply unpopular at this point, he said, and it is becoming less popular the longer it goes on—warning that Trump is “struggling mightily” as the conflict enters its second month with no clear end in sight.