Hillary Clinton’s stunning 2025 promise to nominate President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize if he ended the war in Ukraine has become Washington’s most discussed “what if” this spring — as Trump now sits atop betting odds for the 2026 award despite an unresolved conflict with Iran and stalled negotiations with Russia.
Clinton made her August 2025 pledge when she vowed to personally nominate Trump if he brokered peace between Russia and Ukraine. Nine months later, with Moscow and Kyiv still locked in grinding warfare and the White House’s diplomatic efforts frozen, the former Secretary of State has not followed through and her camp has remained conspicuously quiet.
The race for this year’s Nobel Peace Prize has erupted into a political spectacle. On April 30, 2026, the Norwegian Nobel Committee confirmed 287 candidates are in contention — 208 individuals and 79 organizations. While the committee won’t publicly identify nominees for another 50 years, leaders of Cambodia, Israel and Pakistan have all openly declared they put Trump’s name forward, nominations that would have needed submission by the Jan. 31, 2026 deadline.
Trump Leads Bookmakers Despite Iran War
U.K. bookmaker William Hill has installed Trump as the front-runner even as the president’s war with Iran — which began on Feb. 28 — drags on with no resolution in sight. Spokesperson Lee Phelps told reporters Trump’s status is unique among the field.
“Although the Norwegian Nobel Committee have not confirmed that Donald Trump is among the 287 candidates for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, we make Trump the leading contender to take this year’s award,” Phelps said. Trump is now priced at 3/1 — a 25 percent chance — down from a 55 percent implied probability quoted late last year, he added.
Near Christmas, William Hill had Trump at 4/5, a strikingly bullish position before the bombs started falling. Three months ago, those odds had drifted from 7/4 to 7/2, reflecting waning confidence after the Iran conflict ignited.
Prediction markets tell a far less rosy story. As of May 1, 2026, Trump sits in third place on Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market in the world, running on cryptocurrency, with just a 7 percent chance, trailing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Trump Wavers Between Dismissal and Bravado
Speaking to the Washington Examiner from Miami, Florida on March 12, the president told reporters: “I don’t know. I’m not interested in it.” Two weeks later, he flipped, declaring that if he doesn’t get the Nobel, “nobody will ever get it.”
His allies have hammered the same theme. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth suggested the U.S. military should win the Peace Prize every year. In December 2025, Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado presented her own human rights award to Trump, who called it “such a wonderful gesture of mutual respect.”
Reflecting on his own legacy, Trump has said he wants to be remembered as “a great peacemaker.” Whether the committee in Oslo agrees — and whether Hillary Clinton ever makes good on her startling pledge — may shape the final months of this year’s most unpredictable Nobel race.
Speculative Nominees Span the Globe
The shortlist of speculative nominees this year reads like a global roll call. Yulia Navalnaya, widow of the late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, is in heavy circulation. So are Pope Francis, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms volunteer aid network, and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees.
Norwegian lawmaker Lars Haltbrekken has revealed he nominated Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski alongside Aaja Chemnitz, a member of the Danish parliament elected from Greenland. “Together they have worked relentlessly to build trust and to secure a peaceful development of the Arctic region over many years,” Haltbrekken said. The pairing is a direct rebuke to Trump’s continued push to acquire Greenland from Denmark.
Kristian Berg Harpviken, who became Secretary of the Norwegian Nobel Committee in January 2025, declined to confirm whether Trump is among the nominees, citing the 50-year secrecy rule. But he acknowledged the field has shifted dramatically from a year ago.
Harpviken also expressed grave concern about 2023 laureate Narges Mohammadi, who suffered a heart attack inside an Iranian prison. As of May 11, Iranian authorities transferred Mohammadi to a Tehran hospital and temporarily suspended her sentence on bail — though her family is demanding unconditional release, warning her condition remains critical and that any return to prison could prove fatal.
The Path to October
The committee in Oslo will announce the 2026 winner on October 9, with the ceremony scheduled for December 10. Until then, the speculation machine — fueled by world leaders, prediction markets, and Trump’s own oscillating commentary — will only intensify.