Podcaster Joe Rogan, whose endorsement in 2024 is widely credited with helping President Donald Trump secure key young voters and return to the White House, now predicts Democrats will reclaim the presidency in 2028 due to widespread opposition to the ongoing war in Iran.
The 58-year-old commentator made his prediction on May 20, 2026, declaring that the unpopular conflict will drive an inevitable Republican loss. During his most recent podcast episode, Rogan said that people are looking at what is happening with the Republicans and the Iran war, which he characterized as extremely unpopular. He noted that polling shows support for the conflict at roughly 30 percent. Rogan predicted that Democrats will come along and win in 2028, with new ideas pushed forward because people want something different than the current situation.
The forecast marks a dramatic reversal from Rogan’s position during the 2024 election cycle, when he became one of President Trump’s most vocal supporters. His endorsement came just days before the November 5, 2024, election and was seen as crucial in mobilizing younger male voters in key battleground states. President Trump spent three hours recording an episode with Rogan in October 2024, arriving late to a rally and leaving supporters waiting in the cold.
Rogan has been increasingly distancing himself from President Trump and his policies since January 2026, with his sharpest criticism focused on the ongoing war in Iran. The former Fear Factor host has expressed his disappointment with the president’s foreign policy decisions. On an earlier episode, Rogan said the situation seems insane based on what Trump ran on, noting that many people feel betrayed. He emphasized that Trump campaigned on ending stupid and senseless wars, yet the country now has one that cannot be clearly defined. Rogan added that the war simply does not make sense to him.
The commentator has a mixed record with political forecasting. On August 2, 2024, during an episode of The Joe Rogan Experience featuring cultural commentator Michael Malice, Rogan predicted that then-Vice President Kamala Harris would defeat Trump in that year’s presidential election. When Malice countered that Harris would not win, Rogan clarified he was not saying it because he thought she would win or wanted her to, but was just being honest.
Rogan explained his reasoning was based less on Harris’s appeal and more on Trump’s lack of likability. He said people are in a bizarre time where they are giving into a mentality he never suspected, adding that voters simply want no Trump, no matter what. That prediction, of course, proved incorrect when Trump won the presidency and was inaugurated on January 20, 2025, with Vice President JD Vance.
In April 2026, Rogan declared himself “politically homeless” while harshly criticizing Trump’s MAGA fan base. He complained about having to accept what he described as weird, uninteresting, and unintelligent people who cling to the movement alongside genuine patriots, all lumped into one group. Rogan said the concept of making America great is a great idea, but criticized allowing anyone to join the team without standards, resulting in people spouting opinions that others are expected to support simply because they identify as MAGA.
Despite the growing rift, there appeared to be a brief warming of relations in April 2026, when Rogan appeared alongside Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and others as President Trump signed an executive order intended to accelerate medical treatments for mental illness using psychedelic drugs. Rogan explained that he had sent President Trump information about the issue, and the text message response came back quickly, saying it sounded great and asking if Rogan wanted FDA approval, adding that they should do it.
During that Oval Office meeting, President Trump acknowledged the tension between the former friends with a characteristic backhanded compliment. Trump said everyone respects Rogan but noted he is a little bit more liberal, adding that was okay and that he has many friends who are liberal.
The podcaster’s influence on American politics remains significant. His show, The Joe Rogan Experience, reaches millions of listeners and has become a crucial platform for political figures seeking to connect with younger audiences. While Rogan was instrumental in Trump’s 2024 victory, particularly among young male voters who consume his podcast regularly, his current criticism highlights the challenges the administration faces in maintaining support from its 2024 coalition.
As the 2028 election cycle approaches, Rogan’s prediction that Democrats will reclaim the White House adds another voice to growing concerns within Republican circles about the political costs of the Iran war. With polling showing support for the conflict hovering around 30 percent, the war has become an increasingly heavy burden for Trump and his party to carry into the next presidential election.
Whether Rogan’s 2028 prediction proves more accurate than his failed 2024 forecast remains to be seen, but his willingness to publicly break with the president he once championed signals a broader erosion of support that could reshape the political landscape heading into the next presidential race.