A nuclear deal to end a three-month war with Iran could be just days away — or a massive U.S. bombing campaign could begin instead. President Trump on Tuesday issued that stark ultimatum to Tehran, revealing he had come within one hour of launching a strike before Gulf allies persuaded him to hold back.
“I was an hour away from making the decision to go today,” Trump told reporters at the White House, insisting that Iran’s leaders are “begging for a deal” even as he warned that a fresh American assault would follow in the coming days if no agreement was reached.
The dramatic disclosure came one day after Trump announced that he had instructed the Pentagon to stand down on a strike at the request of leaders from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Trump said “serious negotiations” were underway but ordered the U.S. military to prepare for a “full, large scale assault” on a moment’s notice.
The Human Cost of Conflict
The conflict has already claimed more than 3,400 lives across the Middle East, according to health authorities in each country. Iran has suffered more than 1,900 deaths from U.S. and Israeli strikes, its deputy health minister reported. At least 1,400 have been killed in Lebanon, 23 in Israel, and 15 U.S. service members have lost their lives.
The war began nearly three months ago when the United States joined Israel in striking Iran’s nuclear facilities in late February, devastating the region. The fragile ceasefire struck in mid-April has been fraying for weeks. Last week, Trump described the truce as being on “life support” after U.S. forces exchanged fire with Iranian units.
The violence has continued in Lebanon, where Israeli fire killed three paramedics in less than 12 hours, including two from the Islamic Health Authority in Haris and another from the Al-Risala Association in Tyre, according to the Lebanese Public Health Ministry.
Tehran’s Counteroffer and Suspicions
Iranian officials say Tehran’s latest peace proposal involves ending hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, the exit of U.S. forces from areas close to Iran, reparations for destruction caused by the U.S.-Israeli attacks, the lifting of sanctions, the release of frozen funds and an end to the U.S. marine blockade. Trump has publicly dismissed the proposal as “garbage.”
Suspicion runs deep in Tehran. After American forces rescued a downed F-15E crew over Iran, Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei suggested the operation in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province may have been cover for an attempt to steal nuclear material. Iranian lawmaker Ebrahim Azizi and judiciary spokesman Kazem Gharibabadi have both warned of consequences for any new attack.
Oil Markets Shudder as Deadlines Loom
Trump faces intense political pressure to reach a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments. Gas prices remain high and the president’s approval rating has plummeted as congressional elections loom in the coming months.
Energy markets have whipsawed with each new Trump pronouncement. On April 6, the price of U.S. crude oil jumped from $112 to about $114 per barrel when Trump began speaking at a news conference, before easing slightly. At that event, Trump set eight p.m. ET the following day as a final deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to obliterate Iranian energy infrastructure.
“We’re giving them till tomorrow, 8 o’clock Eastern time, and after that, they’re going to have no bridges. They’re going to have no power plants,” Trump warned at the time, prompting Iranian warnings of a “more severe and expansive” response.
Recent Israeli strikes have already battered Iran’s energy sector. Heavy smoke and fires were seen at the South Pars Petrochemical Complex in Asaluyeh, Bushehr province in southern Iran. Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, said the plant was responsible for about 50 percent of Iran’s petrochemical production. South Pars sits atop the world’s largest gas field beneath the Persian Gulf.
Diplomatic Efforts and Nuclear Concerns
Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, speaking in Berlin this week, said the immediate priority of U.S.-Iran negotiations was keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, though Iran’s nuclear program remained the central issue.
Fidan said much of Iran’s enriched uranium that could potentially be used for a nuclear weapon was buried under collapsed tunnels following the February attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The U.S. has said it is closely monitoring any movements around the stockpile.
Trump has spoken in recent days with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Chinese President Xi Jinping about the conflict.
Political Pressure Mounts at Home
Vice President JD Vance struck a more measured tone Tuesday, telling reporters that Washington and Tehran had made significant progress and that neither side wanted a resumption of the military campaign. Vance acknowledged difficulties in negotiating with a fractured Iranian leadership and said one objective of Trump’s policy is to prevent a nuclear arms race from spreading across the region.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Caine have echoed warnings that Iran faces a decisive military response if talks collapse. For now, the world is watching the clock — and waiting to see whether Trump pulls the trigger or strikes a deal.